Exploring drought and annual rainfall in Puerto Rico
Author
Holupchinski Ordahl, Eva
Advisor
Brokaw, NicholasType
ThesisDegree Level
M.S.Date
2022-12-20Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
As a consequence of climate change, the frequency and intensity of droughts in Puerto Rico are projected to increase, making mitigation a high priority. The overall purpose of my thesis project is to better understand the characteristics of drought occurrence in Puerto Rico by examining its spatial accumulation, duration, frequency, and severity, the trends in annual rainfall and dry days, and the factors that affect freshwater availability. My research aims to determine whether drought conditions are becoming more intense, where drought conditions in Puerto Rico occur most frequently, and whether the local climate is exhibiting an overall drying trend. In chapter one, I provide a background on drought by describing the different types of drought, factors that influence drought conditions, and water use and resources in Puerto Rico. In chapter two, I examine drought events from 2000 to 2020 by analyzing the spatial distribution, characteristics, and effects of recent drought occurrences. In chapter three, I analyze rainfall, streamflow and reservoir data; and examine water use per capita, population, and issues in water storage and transport infrastructure. In chapter four, I summarize my thesis and provide conclusory statements. From 2000 to 2020, drought conditions occurred in some areas more frequently than others in an uneven distribution across the territory. Drought conditions most affected the southeast region of the main island of Puerto Rico, most frequently occuring the municipalities of Salinas, Cayey, and Guayama. Moderate droughts have occurred roughly every two to three years since 2000, lasting an average of about 5 months. While no severe droughts were registered by USDM from 2000 to 2014, severe droughts occurred in 2015-2016, 2019, and 2020, lasting 48, 13 and 8 weeks, respectively. However, the findings in this rainfall analysis indicate that Puerto Rico is not getting drier when it comes to annual rainfall or annual dry days. My research clearly illustrates that although annual rainfall is increasing rather than decreasing, water availability continues to be limited by lack of storage capacity, dilapidated infrastructure, and competing water uses. Further studies on monthly and seasonal rainfall would be helpful to further investigate how rainfall regimes are changing across Puerto Rico.